Market Update September 2023
Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park
By: Michael Rice | September 2, 2023
My View From Inside
Many sensational headlines have been predicting the collapse of home prices all year. But even as mortgage rates recently hit a 21 year high (7.17%), median home prices continue to hold steady – especially in the Conejo Valley.
The market had its correction in May of 2022
Last year, when mortgage rates jumped, our median price dropped from $1,315 to a low of $956k last September. Since then, even as mortgage rates have done the opposite of “expert” predictions and have gone up rather than down, home prices are back up to $1,080.
Why is that? Low inventory. We have been battling this low inventory issue in the Conejo Valley for over a decade now and it’s only gotten worse.
The Conejo Valley has been built out for quite some time. Demand has only increased after Covid allowed people to work from home and Millennials, the largest generation in our history, entered peak home buying age.
Should I just wait for rates to drop before buying?
Waiting for rates to drop and assuming it will save you money is a risky strategy. When rates begin to fall (and they will at some point), a flurry of buyers will reenter the market causing even more shortages and bringing back bidding wars leading to rapid price appreciation.
Remember: Once you own a house and rates come down, you can always refinance and lower your rate/payment, but you can never lower your purchase price.
The Bottom Line…
Don’t let the headlines fool you. This isn’t 2008 again – home prices aren’t collapsing and banks aren’t foreclosing. The housing market remains resilient.
If you’re looking to move in the next 12 months, it may be wise to start now so you’ll be ahead of the masses when rates start to come down and bidding wars return to the market.
What to expect moving forward
- Market activity usually picks up in the fall after the summer lull. Expect a steady increase in activity over the next few months.
- Although inventory is down year over year, it’s up slightly from last month. Expect that trend to continue.
- Mortgage rates have already backed off from its 21 year high. Expect rates to level off and hopefully start to come down.
- Take another look at some of the homes that have been on the market over 60 days. There are some good opportunities to be found as some sellers get more motivated to negotiate.
Seller’s Corner
Rising interest rates and high home prices create cautious buyers. Low inventory of competing homes is keeping the market skewed slightly towards sellers. But understand that buyers are nervous and a bit fickle. It may take a couple tries to have a buyer stick. It’s critical to price your home right and do your best to keep a deal together. It’s risky to lose a buyer right now. Your next offer may be lower.
Market Snapshot
Prices
- The median price of a Conejo Valley home was up in August to $1,090,000.
- That’s now 3 consecutive months up.
- Prices are up 0.1% from $1,085,000 last August.
- And up $15,000 from last month.
Homes for Sale
- August ended with 299 homes for sale.
- Down 23% from last August.
- That’s 89 fewer homes than last year.
- And 6 more homes than last month.
Days on Market
- It took 26 days on average to sell a home in August.
- Down 10.3% from last August.
- That’s 6 fewer days than last year.
- And 4 days more than last month.
