Market Update January 2024
Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park
By: Michael Rice | January 3, 2024
My View From Inside
The much anticipated mortgage rate descent finally got underway in December! After peaking at 7.79% in October, mortgage rates ended the year at 6.61%, right about where we started off (rates were 6.48% in Jan 2023).
The mortgage rate forecast calls for a continued drop in rates throughout the year bouncing somewhere between low 6% to mid 5%, give or take.
How will lower rates impact home prices?
They’ll go up. We’re already seeing the impact of lower rates on home prices. The median price of a Conejo Valley home ended the year at $1.1 mil, up 20% from last December. But that’s still about 200k below the peak of $1.3 mil back in May 2022.
The official CA forecast is for home prices to increase 6.2%, however the Conejo Valley typically outperforms the state – don’t be surprised if we see double digit price increases this year.
For more detail, check out: 2024 California and Conejo Valley Housing Market Forecast
Lower mortgage rates will help increase inventory
With only 214 homes for sale for an area of 160k residents, record low inventory continues to be our biggest challenge and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
Multiple offers for homes in popular neighborhoods never went away, and will only be more common as rates continue down. You’ll need to be prepared.
But a drop in rates will also help free up some inventory. The more rates come down, the more homeowners will be willing to give up their low rate and put their home on the market. That will lead to more homes selling in 2024.
Bottom Line…
After 3 years of a crazy market, 2023 was the hangover year. 2024 should be a return to normalcy.
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What to expect moving forward
- All signs point to a continued seller’s market in 2024.
- Expect a slow drip of new listings and a calm first few months of the year as the market finds its footing.
- Avoid trying to time mortgage rates as they will likely bounce up and down throughout the year.
- With such low inventory, the asking price will be the starting point for the popular homes. Be prepared to go up.
Seller’s Corner
The recent drop in mortgage rates and record low inventory is skewing the market in sellers favor. However, it’s still critically important to price your home correctly from the beginning. Buyers are eagerly waiting to pounce. If you miss that first window to attract a buyer, you may have a tough time getting them to come back again once you inevitably drop the price.
What's The 2024 California Forecast?
According to the California Association of REALTORS
- The median price of a home is expected to increase 6.2% in 2024.
- The number of home sales is expected to increase 22.9%.
- Interest rates are expected to average 6% in 2024.
Market Snapshot
Home Prices
- The median price of a Conejo Valley home was up in December to $1,100,000.
- That’s 1 consecutive month up.
- Prices are up 20.1% from $916,000 last December.
- And up $162,000 from last month.
For Sale
- December ended with 214 homes for sale.
- Down 2.3% from last December.
- That’s 5 fewer homes than last year.
- And 71 fewer homes than last month.
Days on Market
- It took 34 days on average to sell a home in December.
- Down 16.3% from last December.
- That’s 6 days less than last year.
- And 11 days more than last month.
