This page provides current guidance for buying a home in the Conejo Valley. It is written and updated periodically by Michael Rice, a Conejo Valley real estate advisor with over 25 years of local experience, using local MLS data and on-the-ground market insights.
MORTGAGE RATES ARE TRENDING DOWNWARDS
2025 Q4 RECAP: Rates started off Q4 at about 6.7% and ended the quarter at about 6.2%.
2026 FORECAST: The forecast is for mortgage rates to continue downward. C.A.R. is forecasting rates to drop to 6.0% in 2026. Fannie Mae expects roughly the same (5.9%) by late 2026.
MY ADVICE
- It’s wise to accept that rates in the 6s are the “new normal” and to plan accordingly.
- Waiting for a significant rate drop in an already appreciating market may lead to increased competition from other buyers driving prices up further.
- REMEMBER: Purchase price is forever, mortgage rates can be temporary.
YOU’LL NEED TIME TO SHOP FOR A LOAN
Financing is often the biggest hurdle for buyers, but lenders are eager to work with you. New loan programs make rates more manageable.
MY ADVICE
- Minimally, get pre-approved for a loan before you start house hunting.
- Talk to at least one big bank (BofA, Chase, etc) and one mortgage broker. The big banks are best for highly qualified buyers with fully documented income. Mortgage brokers are best for everyone else. But it’s still good practice to talk to both no matter your situation.
- Going one step further and getting a fully underwritten pre-approval ahead of time can greatly increase your negotiating power when competing with other buyers.
HOME PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
Lower mortgage rates are bringing buyers back to the market which is expected to cause home prices to increase.
Q4 CONEJO VALLEY UPDATE: Median prices ended Q4 at $1,030,000, relatively flat over the last 12 months bouncing between $1.1M-$1.2M .
FORECAST: The California Association of Realtors forecasts home prices to increase 3.6% increase in 2026 to $905k, while Conejo Valley may see even higher gains.
* For the most recent pricing trends and how they compare year over year, review the latest Market Update
MY ADVICE
- Demand for Conejo Valley homes remains relatively high, but way below peak activity. With limited inventory and no plans for large new home developments, steady price increases are expected to continue. Think long term.
- Timing the market is more luck than strategy—consider buying when you’re ready vs. trying to time dips in mortgage rates.
INVENTORY IS IMPROVING CREATING A BALANCED MARKET
- Inventory has been increasing significantly every month with Q4 ending the 317 homes for sale, a 10.8% increase over last year.
- Sellers who have been putting off selling can no longer wait, but the demand for housing isn’t what it was causing inventory to grow.
MY ADVICE
- Inventory is rising year over year – outpacing last year at this time, though it remains below historical averages. Inventory will start to increase in Q1 as the year gets going and pick up as we approach spring.
- While some homes are still seeing multiple offers, move-up and downsizer properties are selling faster than first-time buyer homes, as affordability challenges continue to impact entry-level buyers. Plan accordingly.
YOUR COMPETITION ISN’T WHAT IT WAS
In other words, it will be easier to buy in 2026 than it was in the last few years. The frenzy of selling on a weekend with dozens of offers over asking price is behind us…for now. While multiple offers are still common, the competition is less intense. Instead of competing with 10+ buyers, you’re likely looking at closer to 1 or 2 – or none at all.
MY ADVICE
- Sellers still aren’t biting on lowball offers — most know inventory is tight and are willing to wait rather than settle for less.
- But if a home’s been sitting for 30 days or more, chances are the price is too high. In those cases, sellers are usually more open to talking numbers and working out a deal.
OBTAINING FIRE INSURANCE CAN COME WITH CHALLENGES
The horrific fires that struck Southern California in 2025 put more pressure on an already challenging situation. Unfortunately, this is an issue that’s not going away any time soon.
MY ADVICE
- If you find a home you are considering making an offer on, contact an insurance broker ahead of time to get an idea of the insurability of the property and a ballpark price estimate – especially homes by hills and/or open space.
- WORST CASE: Buyers can utilize the fire insurance provided through the California Fair Plan as a last resort.
SELLERS ARE MAKING CONCESSIONS AGAIN
The days of buyers waiving contingencies up front and offering extras to win a deal are gone…sellers are now more willing to negotiate repairs or other terms.
MY ADVICE
- Sellers in both Ventura and L.A. Counties are only required to do 3 things: strap the water heater for earthquake safety, install smoke detectors, and install carbon monoxide detectors. That’s it. Everything else is negotiable.
- However, broken items and safety concerns are fair game. Don’t hesitate to ask for repairs or concessions—most sellers are open to reasonable requests.
AGENT COMPENSATION RULES HAVE CHANGED
Agent compensation has always been and remains negotiable. Key changes went into effect in 2024:
- Buyers and their agent must now sign a Buyer Representation Agreement – a legal contract outlining the services provided, obligations, and the terms of compensation.
- Sellers can still offer compensation to the buyer’s agent, but it won’t be displayed in the MLS.
MY ADVICE
- Sellers traditionally cover the buyer’s agent’s fee, and this is still the norm in most cases.
If a seller offers less compensation than what’s stated in the Buyer Representation Agreement, buyers would cover the difference—often by adjusting their offer price. - Before signing a Buyer Representation Agreement, I will provide a free consultation to showcase my expertise and explain how I can guide you through finding and purchasing your next home with confidence.
Monthly Market Snapshot (YoY)
Conejo Valley - As of February 1, 2026 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Median Home Price | $1,135,000 | -5.4% |
| Number of Homes for Sale | 356 homes | 354 last year |
| Avg Days on Market | 44 days | 36 last year |
| 30 Year Mortgage Rate | 6.10% | 7.0% last year |
Questions Other Buyers Often Ask
These are some of the questions buyers often ask once they start thinking more seriously about what all of this means for them.
Is now a good time to buy a home in the Conejo Valley?
It depends more on your personal situation than what the market is doing.
Trying to time the market is tough. What matters more are your needs and
time horizon. Factors like a growing family, job situation, and how long
you plan to live in the home can outweigh short-term market conditions.
There is no perfect timing. Think long-term and do what’s best for you,
and let the market be.
Should I wait for interest rates to fall before I buy?
That’s a common and fair question. Rates have a major impact on affordability.
Waiting for rates to drop sounds logical, but it’s not always the best strategy.
Lower rates often bring more buyers back into the market, increasing competition
and pushing prices higher. Many buyers choose to buy when competition is lower
and refinance later if rates improve. Market experts have predicted rate drops
for years with limited success, so it’s usually better to buy when you’re
personally ready rather than trying to time rate cuts.
Are home prices expected to drop in the Conejo Valley?
The California Association of Realtors forecasts home prices to increase
approximately 3.6% in 2026. The Conejo Valley often outperforms the broader
market due to strong demand and limited housing supply. While prices can
fluctuate, significant drops are uncommon. For most buyers, the bigger risk
is waiting too long and missing the right home rather than trying to time
the exact bottom.
How much should I budget beyond the purchase price?
Beyond your down payment, buyers should plan for inspections, non-recurring
closing costs, and recurring costs. Non-recurring closing costs typically
run about 1–3% of the purchase price. Recurring closing costs usually add
another 1–1.5% for prepaid expenses such as interest, property taxes, and
homeowners insurance. I break down all of the expenses on my Cost to Buy page.
Is it better to buy now or continue renting?
Renting offers flexibility, lower upfront costs, and no maintenance
responsibilities, but it doesn’t build equity. If you’re financially and
mentally prepared to buy, homeownership has historically been the stronger
long-term choice. That said, stretching yourself too thin can be risky,
especially when unexpected expenses come up.
What’s the biggest mistake buyers make in this market?
Buying too early without fully understanding the market or trying to time it.
Even experienced buyers need time to learn the area, neighborhoods, and
current conditions. That learning phase can take anywhere from a few weeks
to a few months. Once you’re educated, waiting for perfect timing in rates
or prices is usually unrealistic. It’s best to buy when you’re informed and
find a home you truly love.
How can I tell if buying this year makes sense for me?
That’s where a personalized conversation helps. The right decision depends
on your goals, budget, timeline, and comfort level. A quick strategy
discussion can clarify whether buying now, waiting, or adjusting expectations
is the smartest move for you.
