2025 Q2 RECAP: Rates kicked off Q3 with a 3 month low hitting the mid 6s.
2025 FORECAST: Fannie Mae anticipates rates around 6.5% by the end of 2025. Many other forecasters agree.
MY ADVICE
- It’s wise to accept that rates in the 6s are the “new normal” and to plan accordingly.
- Waiting for a significant rate drop in an already appreciating market may lead to increased competition from other buyers driving prices up further.
- REMEMBER: Purchase price is forever, mortgage rates can be temporary.
Financing is often the biggest hurdle for buyers, but lenders are eager to work with you. New loan programs make rates more manageable.
MY ADVICE
- Minimally, get pre-approved for a loan before you start house hunting.
- Talk to at least one big bank (BofA, Chase, etc) and one mortgage broker. The big banks are best for highly qualified buyers with fully documented income. Mortgage brokers are best for everyone else. But it’s still good practice to talk to both no matter your situation.
- Going one step further and getting a fully underwritten pre-approval ahead of time can greatly increase your negotiating power when competing with other buyers.
Lower mortgage rates are bringing buyers back to the market which is expected to cause home prices to increase.
Q2 CONEJO VALLEY UPDATE: Median prices ended June at $1,170,000, relatively flat over the last 12 months.
FORECAST: The California Association of Realtors predicts a 4.6% increase in 2025, while Conejo Valley may see even higher growth.
MY ADVICE
- Demand for Conejo Valley homes remains relatively high, but way below peak activity. With limited inventory and no plans for large new home developments, steady price increases are expected to continue. Think long term.
- Timing the market is more luck than strategy—consider buying when you’re ready vs. trying to time dips in mortgage rates.
- Inventory has been increasing significantly every month with June ending the 602 homes for sale, a 41% increase over last year.
- Sellers who have been putting off selling can no longer wait, but the demand for housing isn’t what it was causing inventory to grow.
MY ADVICE
- Inventory is rising quickly — outpacing last year at this time — though it remains below historical averages. We expect it to continue climbing and likely peak around May or June.
- While some homes are still seeing multiple offers, move-up and downsizer properties are selling faster than first-time buyer homes, as affordability challenges continue to impact entry-level buyers. Plan accordingly.
In other words, it will be easier to buy in 2025 than it was in the last few years. The frenzy of selling on a weekend with dozens of offers over asking price is behind us…for now. While multiple offers are still common, the competition is less intense. Instead of competing with 10+ buyers, you’re likely looking at closer to 1 or 2 – or none at all.
MY ADVICE
- Sellers still aren’t biting on lowball offers — most know inventory is tight and are willing to wait rather than settle for less.
- But if a home’s been sitting for 30 days or more, chances are the price is too high. In those cases, sellers are usually more open to talking numbers and working out a deal.
The horrific fires that struck Southern California in January put more pressure on an already challenging situation. Unfortunately, this is an issue that’s not going away any time soon.
MY ADVICE
- If you find a home you are considering making an offer on, contact an insurance broker ahead of time to get an idea of the insurability of the property and a ballpark price estimate – especially homes by hills and/or open space.
- WORST CASE: Buyers can utilize the fire insurance provided through the California Fair Plan as a last resort.
The days of buyers waiving contingencies up front and offering extras to win a deal are gone…sellers are now more willing to negotiate repairs or other terms.
MY ADVICE
- Sellers in both Ventura and L.A. Counties are only required to do 3 things: strap the water heater for earthquake safety, install smoke detectors, and install carbon monoxide detectors. That’s it. Everything else is negotiable.
- However, broken items and safety concerns are fair game. Don’t hesitate to ask for repairs or concessions—most sellers are open to reasonable requests.
Agent compensation has always been and remains negotiable. Key changes went into effect August 2024:
- Buyers and their agent must now sign a Buyer Representation Agreement – a legal contract outlining the services provided, obligations, and the terms of compensation.
- Sellers can still offer compensation to the buyer’s agent, but it won’t be displayed in the MLS.
MY ADVICE
- Sellers traditionally cover the buyer’s agent’s fee, and this is still the norm in most cases.
If a seller offers less compensation than what’s stated in the Buyer Representation Agreement, buyers would cover the difference—often by adjusting their offer price. - Before signing a Buyer Representation Agreement, I will provide a free consultation to showcase my expertise and explain how I can guide you through finding and purchasing your next home with confidence.
