Market Update | January 2026

Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park

As we kick off the new year, a lot of people are asking the same question: What should I expect for the real estate market 2026?

• Will home prices come down?
• Will there be more homes to choose from?
• And the big question – what’s the forecast for interest rates?

Here’s a quick look at where we are today and then I’ll cover what to expect in 2026

My View From Inside

2025 was a rather uneventful year for the Conejo Valley real estate market. The year started off strong, then uneasiness crept in triggered by the tariff policy and the market never fully recovered.

Home prices remained flat all year bouncing between $1.1M-$1.2M, but inventory started to climb month over month – a welcome change for buyers, but not great news for home sellers.

As the year progressed, homes were taking longer to sell and many sellers had to make steep price cuts to find a buyer. Not because home prices were dropping, rather some sellers still believed we were in a low inventory/”name your price” market.

First time home buyers struggled the most. With prices remaining high and stubborn interest rates lingering in the upper 6s, affordability favored the move-up and downsizer buyers who had equity to move from one house to another.

What Should We Expect For 2026?

The short answer: More of the same.

The official forecast from the California Association of Realtors shows slight changes across the board indicating a relatively flat market. Here’s a quick forecast summary for 2026:

C.A.R. Forecasts:

• Home prices to increase 3.6% in 2026 to $905k.
• Mortgage rates to continue downward to 6.0% in 2026 (currently 6.2%).
• Home sales to increase 2.0% in 2026 – 38% fewer sales than the peak of 2021.

Whose Market Is It?

Is it a buyer’s market? A seller’s market?
The real answer: it depends on the neighborhood, the house, and most importantly, the price.

Two homes a mile apart can have completely different outcomes – one sells in a week with multiple offers. The other sits on the market for months and ultimately sells well below the asking price.

What we’re really in right now is a market of micro-markets.

Homes that appeal to move-up buyers are often the homes selling the fastest. It’s the first time home buyers that continue to face the most headwinds with affordability and job security concerns. That will likely continue in 2026.

The better question is: “How is my specific neighborhood and price range behaving right now?”

That’s where strategy matters.

Bottom Line…

For Buyers: Expect more options and more breathing room. Prices are unlikely to fall, but you are more likely to have time to think, negotiate, and make a decision without feeling rushed. Try to focus on the finding the right home and neighborhood rather than trying to guess where rates will be in the future.

For Sellers: Pricing and preparation matter more than years past. The market is no longer forgiving of starting too high and adjusting later. Homes that are priced right from the start tend to sell. Homes that are not often sit, reduce, and ultimately sell for less than expected.

Expect a more balanced market in 2026 – and that’s a good thing!

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Explore Further

• Learn more about timing, costs, and the buying process on My Advice for Buying a Home in 2026.
• Browse Conejo Valley neighborhoods if you are ready to start exploring areas and homes.
• See a breakdown of numbers and net proceeds on How Much it Costs to Sell a Conejo Valley Home.