My View From Inside

High home prices and high mortgage rates have kept the real estate market in a slump over the last few years. Here in the Conejo Valley, prices have held steady between $1.1M and $1.2M, but interest rates have been far less predictable.

When Will Mortgage Rates Finally Drop?

For buyers, one of the most frustrating aspects of the market has been the constant promise that rates are about to drop in the near future. This time, however, the drop looks to actually be happening.

Rates peaked in October 2023 at about 7.79% and have now slid to roughly 6.4% – the lowest level in 2025. With more Fed cuts expected, Fannie Mae is forecasting rates could dip closer to 5.9% in 2026.

Should I wait for rates to come down more next year?

The dilemma home buyers face right now: Buy now or wait for rates to come down. (I discussed the pros and cons in more detail last month)

Before you decide to wait it out until rates drop more next year, keep a few things in mind:

• We’ve heard these forecasts before. Predictions for rates in the 5s have been around for years, and they’ve yet to materialize. At some point, the forecasts will be right, but their track record isn’t great.
• Lower rates will bring more buyers back into the market. More buyers = more competition and likely higher prices.
• Inventory has improved dramatically, and sellers are more negotiable today than at any point in over a decade.

Every home buyer wants more affordable prices, lower mortgage rates and lots of homes to choose from. Two out of those 3 are happening now.

As I often say, trying to time the market is more luck than skill. The best time to buy is when you’re ready and you find a house you love. Timing can certainly make a difference, but historically, it’s not timing the market that’s been the most important factor, it’s time in the market that matters.

Local Snapshot (Conejo Valley – End of September):

• 538 active listings, compared to 443 this time last year — a 21% increase

• Homes are taking longer to sell – 60 days on average

• Price reductions are more frequent, but are slowing now that sellers are adjusting to the current market climate. 50+ reductions per week has slowed to 20+ per week.

• Prices remain relatively flat, down 1% year-over-year, but bouncing between 1.1M-1.2M annually.
   → Median home price: $1,125,000

• Mortgage rates ended September at approx. 6.4% – no change from last year, but lowest in 2025.

Bottom Line:

Buyers: If you’re waiting for the “perfect” rate, you may miss today’s rare window: lower rates than last year, motivated sellers, and more homes to choose from. Buy the home when you’re ready — you can always refinance later if rates fall further.

Sellers: Inventory is up, but homes are still moving when they’re priced right. Today’s buyers have more leverage than in years past, but many are acting now to take advantage of lower rates. Pricing your home right and standing out from the competition is more important than in years past.

Ready to Make a Move?

Whether you’re buying or selling, the market is shifting—and strategy matters. Let’s connect for a quick, no-pressure conversation about your options.

Let’s talk: (818) 384-9929 | Michael@ConejoValleyGuy.com

Read: My Advice for a Successful Home Purchase or Sale This Year

Buying in 2025      Selling in 2025