My View From Inside

For years now, buyers have been told that mortgage rates were bound to drop, encouraging many buyers to sit on the sidelines, waiting for that day to come.

But now, most experts are walking back those predictions and are instead forecasting mortgage rates to stay in the mid-6% range through the end of the year.

In the forecasters defense, part of the reason rates haven’t come down is due to the tariffs put in place by the current administration. Tariffs lead to inflation and inflation keeps the Fed from cutting rates. (Economic explanation—not a political take!)

Home Prices Remain Steady Despite More Inventory

In spite of a 50% increase in active inventory (624 homes vs 417 last year), and stubborn mortgage rates, prices have held firm at $1,195,000 – same as last year.

Why aren’t home prices dropping?

• Even with the increase, inventory is still below normal. For example, in August 2019 (a seller’s market at the time), we had around 800 homes for sale (vs 624 today).
• A lot of what’s sitting on the market is stale or overpriced. The “good homes” sell quickly and often with multiple offers.
• Many sellers don’t have an urgency to sell and are either holding firm on their price or deciding to take their home off the market.
• High mortgage rates have led to a surge in cash buyers who are keeping the market moving and now make up 30% of sales – a dramatic increase from just 7% last year.
• Price reductions are way up, with over 50 per week across the Conejo Valley (vs. a typical 10). However, final sale prices are only 2.4% below the original list price.

Local Snapshot (Conejo Valley – End of July):

• 624 active listings, compared to 417 this time last year — a 49% increase

• Homes are taking longer to sell – 52 days on average

• Price reductions are more frequent, 50+ per week

• Prices remain relatively flat, down 0.4% year-over-year, but bouncing between 1.1M-1.2M annually.
   → Median home price: $1,195,000

• Mortgage rates ended July at approx. 6.7% – down from 6.9% last July

🗝️ Bottom Line:

Buyers: If you’ve been waiting for rates to drop, it may be time to adjust your expectations. They’re likely not coming down much this year. The good news is there are more homes to choose from now, and sellers are showing more flexibility, especially on homes that have been sitting. Be ready to act quickly when you see the right one – the best homes still move fast!

Sellers: Buyers are still active, but they’re more cautious and selective. Overpricing your home out of the gate could leave it sitting. Don’t fight the market, if you’re not getting showings, you probably need to adjust your price.

💬 Ready to Make a Move?

Whether you’re buying or selling, the market is shifting—and strategy matters. Let’s connect for a quick, no-pressure conversation about your options.

Let’s talk: (818) 384-9929 | Michael@ConejoValleyGuy.com

Read: My Advice for a Successful Home Purchase or Sale This Year

Buying in 2025      Selling in 2025