Market Update | October 2026

Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park

_{Published monthly since 2012}

My Quick Take: I expected September’s numbers to look a little rough. With mortgage rates climbing, inflation concerns, higher energy costs and all the uncertainty in the economy, I thought we’d see fewer buyers, more inventory and lower home prices. I was wrong. In fact, the exact opposite happened.

Here’s a quick look at where we are today.

Local Snapshot | End of September

Prices remain relatively flat, up 7.7% year-over-year, but bouncing between 1.1M-1.2M annually → Median home price: $1,222,000
516 active listings, compared to 586 this time last year — inventory should trend slightly down the rest of the year
Homes are taking 40 days to sell – vs 35 days last year
New Escrows were up 26% indicating homes are still selling in spite of the negative headlines
Mortgage rates ended September at approx. 6.9% – up from 6.4% last year.

My View From Inside

Have you noticed that the headlines and the markets aren’t really lining up lately?

It seems like every day I hear more bad economic news: gas prices, inflation, the bond market, you name it. Then I check the stock market and it’s near a record high.

I read that AI is taking jobs away. Then I see unemployment holding up better than expected.

And then as I sat down to pull the latest Conejo Valley real estate numbers this month, I fully expected to see prices down, inventory up and fewer homes selling. I saw the exact opposite.

The number of homes currently in escrow was up 50%.
Active inventory was down almost 12%.
And the median sales price was up 7.7% and moved back above $1.2 million, a level we haven’t consistently been able to hold.

That is not what I expected to see.

The disconnect between what I’m hearing from buyers and sellers and the actual housing numbers is hard for me to reconcile right now.

Why I Don’t Trust the Forecasts Much Right Now

For several years now, the market forecasters have been predicting rates would drop below 6%. And so far, every year they’ve been wrong. As of October, rates are back above 7%.

A lot of people, myself included, assumed higher rates would push home prices down. At least here in the Conejo Valley, that hasn’t happened. Prices are higher than they were a year ago.

That doesn’t mean rates won’t come down or prices won’t soften. They might. I just don’t think any of us knows when, or by how much.

And that’s why I keep coming back to something I’ve said for years: trying to time the market is more luck than skill.

Trying to Time This Market

Nobody wants to buy at the peak or leave money on the table when they sell. But I think this is where buyers and sellers can get themselves into trouble.

I hear this frequently: A buyer says, “I’m going to wait until rates come down.”

That sounds reasonable. But what happens if rates come down and a bunch of other buyers jump back in at the same time? Maybe prices go up. Maybe competition gets worse. Maybe the lower rate helps, but you end up paying more for the house.

Or maybe rates stay high for another year or two, or even longer. Nobody knows.

Sellers do the same thing. I hear, “Maybe I should wait until after the first of the year,” or “Spring is usually better.”

Maybe it will be.

But what if there are more homes for sale by then? What if rates are higher? What if buyers are feeling less confident six months from now than they are today?

There are just too many moving variables to try to get the timing right.

That’s why I think the better question is not, “What is the market going to do?”
It’s, “What makes sense for me right now?”

If You’re Thinking About Buying

When to buy should be more about your personal situation than what the market is doing.

I’ve bought several homes in my life, and every time I’ve wondered if I got the best interest rate, if I bought at the peak, or if I would have found something better if I’d waited a little longer. That’s human nature.

Looking back, though, the only thing that really mattered was whether the decision made sense for me at the time.

→ If the right house comes up, you really like it, you can afford it comfortably and you expect to be there for a while, I wouldn’t automatically pass because you’re waiting for rates and prices to both come down.

→ But if you’re stretching financially or you’re worried about job security, then waiting may make more sense.

I’d much rather see someone buy the right house for the right reasons than spend another year trying to guess what the market is going to do.

If You’re Thinking About Selling

If there’s a real reason to wait, then wait.

Maybe you need a few months to get the house ready. Maybe you’re still figuring out where you’re going next. Maybe the timing just works better for your life after the first of the year. That all makes sense.

Where I’d be careful is waiting because you’re assuming the market will be better in the spring. It might be. But it might not.

September is a pretty good example of why I’m reluctant to make that kind of prediction. I fully expected the numbers to weaken, and they didn’t. There are buyers in the market right now, homes are going into escrow, and inventory is still lower than it was a year ago.

That doesn’t mean you need to rush and put your home on the market. It just means I wouldn’t wait solely because you think you know what the market is going to look like three or six months from now.

Bottom Line

For Buyers: If the right house comes on the market, the payment works and you’re ready, I wouldn’t wait simply because you think rates or prices have to be better six months from now. They might be. They might not.

For Sellers: If selling now makes sense for your situation, I wouldn’t automatically wait for spring because you assume the market will be better. Wait because there’s a real reason to wait, not because you think you can predict what the market will do next.

Trying to time the market has always been more luck than skill. Right now, I think that’s especially true

Questions about your specific situation? I’m happy to help. Contact Me