Market Update August 2024
Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park
By: Michael Rice | August 1, 2024
My View From Inside
Over the first half of the year, the Conejo Valley real estate market has been steadily shifting to a historically more normal market with increasing inventory and less competition from multiple buyers.
During the pandemic, record low interest rates caused a buying frenzy that ended practically overnight when rates more than doubled.
Since then, the market has been in a relative standstill with many sellers deciding to keep their homes and low interest rates, and buyers choosing to wait on the sidelines until rates and prices come back down.
The standstill has been slowly shifting. July ended with 30% more closed sales and 47% more listings hitting the market vs a year ago. And active inventory was up 27% – welcome news for frustrated buyers.
However, this “normal market” may be short-lived.
Mortgage Rates are finally expected to come down (for real this time!)
The latest Fed meeting on July 31st kept interest rates steady, but hinted that rates will be cut in the next few months. Since then, more weak economic data has come out which increases the likelihood of a cut.
What impact will that have on the real estate market? More demand and higher prices.
During this market shift, Conejo Valley home prices remained resilient. The median price in July ended at $1,194,500 – still below the May 2022 peak median price of $1,315,000, but up 11% from last year. Once rates come down, prices are expected to increase even more.
Conejo Valley Median Home Price
The Bottom Line…
The lower mortgage rates we’ve all been waiting for appear to be coming and that’s great news! The hope is that rates will drop enough to entice more homeowners to sell and give up their low rates to keep a more balanced market.
If that doesn’t happen and demand once again greatly outpaces supply, expect competition and home prices to increase rapidly as rates come down.
Ready to talk? Feel free to reach out (818) 384-9929 | Michael@ConejoValleyGuy.com
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What to expect moving forward
- Expect to see homes sitting on the market a little longer and inventory to continue to grow.
- Expect mortgage rates to hover around 6.8% and slowly trend downward.
- Plan to act quickly on homes under $1.2 million, especially new listings. If you like it, someone else probably does too.
- Expect homes that have been sitting on the market for 30 days or more to take a lower offer. Don’t be afraid to try!
Seller’s Corner
The uptick in competition from other homes for sale is shifting the market away a bit from sellers. It’s still a seller’s market overall, but not like it’s been over the last many years. It’s critically important to price your home correctly from the beginning. Buyers are eagerly waiting to pounce on the popular homes. If you miss that first window to attract a buyer, you may have a tough time getting them to come back again once you inevitably drop the price.
What's The 2024 California Forecast?
According to the California Association of REALTORS
- The median price of a home is expected to increase 6.2% in 2024.
- The number of home sales is expected to increase 22.9%.
- Interest rates are expected to average 6% in 2024.
Market Snapshot
Home Prices
- The median price of a Conejo Valley home was up in July to $1,194,500.
- That’s 8 consecutive months up.
- Prices are up 11.1% from $1,075,000 last July.
- And down $35,500 from last month.
For Sale
- July ended with 372 homes for sale.
- Up 27% from last July.
- That’s 79 more homes than last year.
- And 20 more homes than last month.
Days on Market
- It took 24 days on average to sell a home in July.
- Down 9% from last July.
- That’s 2 more days than last year.
- And 2 more days than last month.
