Market Update October 2022
Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park
By: Michael Rice | October 3, 2022
Released October 3, 2022
My View From Inside
After 26 consecutive months of year-over-year price increases, Conejo Valley home prices have finally started to come down. The median price dropped 6% to $956,250. And if you compare today’s prices to the market peak in May, home prices have come down about 27%. It’s too early to tell if this is the beginning of a long term downward trend or just a much needed correction.
Conejo Valley Home Prices 2022
Mortgage Rates Impact on Home Prices
It’s no secret that mortgage rates have more than doubled this year and are now approaching 7% on a 30 year fixed loan. There’s a good chance rates haven’t peaked yet. But the indicators point to rates coming down next year which is why many experts forecast home prices to increase an average of 2.5% in 2023.
What’s happening in the Conejo Valley?
Price reductions and below-asking-price offers, something that almost didn’t exist just 6 months ago, are now common. Again, that’s not to say that prices are crashing, homes just aren’t selling above the last sale any more. However multiple offers are still a thing for the popular houses.
The best thing the Conejo Valley has going for it is high demand as the flight from the city and neighboring valley continues. Most of the home buyers I work with today are simply choosing to move out this way for a safer and easier lifestyle. Couple that with few people moving away (unless they need to), and you end up with low inventory which keeps upward pressure on home prices over time.
Bottom Line
With rates doubling in a year, it was only a matter of time before home prices corrected. The question now is: How much will they correct and should I hold off buying? It’s impossible to predict where the bottom is. In fact, if the forecasts are right, we may have already reached it. Time will tell…
On a scale from 1-10: Are we in a seller’s market?
What to expect moving forward
- Today through Thanksgiving offers good opportunities for buyers as sellers are eager to sell before the holiday slowdown.
- There are likely more rate hikes in our future before they start to come back down in 2023.
- Expect to see the inventory of homes rise and an increase in price drops for homes listed for over a month.
- Although the market isn’t as competitive as it was, don’t expect much to change through the end of the year.
Seller’s Corner
If you have a home ready to put on the market, get ahead of the market and price it at the lower end of the price spectrum. The days of “testing the market” at a higher price are behind us. Buyer’s are a lot more price conscious these days, but are still ready to pay a fair price.
What's The 2022 California Forecast?
According to the California Association of REALTORS
- The median price of a home is expected to increase 5.2% in 2022.
- The number of home sales is expected to decrease by 5.2%.
- Interest rates are expected to hit 5.3% by the fourth quarter, resulting in a 2022 mortgage rate average of 4.9%. The average mortgage rate should jump to 5.4% by 2023 (updated 5/5/2022).
Market Snapshot
Prices
- The median price of a Conejo Valley home was down in September at $956,259.
- That’s now 1 consecutive month down.
- Prices are down 6% from $1,020,000 last September.
- And down $132,741 from last month.
Homes for Sale
- September ended with 370 homes for sale.
- Down 22% from last September.
- That’s 107 fewer homes than last year.
- And 27 fewer homes than last month.
Days to Sell a Home
- It took 45 days on average to sell a home in September.
- Up 15% from last September.
- That’s 6 more days than last year.
- And 9 more days than last month.
