My View From Inside

If you want to know how the market is doing, just look back to the last several months – Prices are rising, inventory is shrinking and little else has changed.

What is changing is that we are headed into an election which will have a short term impact on the real estate market. I’ve heard grumblings from some buyers expecting a market correction or worse – a market crash due to the contentiousness of the upcoming election (to put it mildly).

Historically, home sales slow about 10% from October to November. During an election year, that number typically jumps to about 15% as some buyers and sellers wait it out to see what happens. However, those are usually just deferred sales. In fact oftentimes, the year after an election is the strongest of a 4 year cycle.

“This caution is temporary, and ultimately results in deferred sales, as the economy, jobs, interest rates and consumer confidence all have far more meaningful roles in the home purchase decision than a Presidential election result in the months that follow.” – BTIG Homebuilding Report

There’s little data to support a market correction or crash. The national economy is showing signs of a strong rebound. The housing market has been a driving force behind the rebound and that’s likely to continue.

 

 

Expect to see a bit of a seasonal/election fueled slowdown as we head towards the end of the year. It will only be temporary. The demand for homes in the Conejo Valley is the highest I’ve seen with no signs of letting up.