Market Update May 2022
Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park
By: Michael Rice | May 3, 2022
Released May 3, 2022
My View From Inside
Lots of talk these days about a shifting real estate market. With interest rates going up and a highly volatile stock market, it’s only logical that talk of a real estate bubble or a shift to a buyer’s market would dominate the headlines.
Don’t let the headlines fool you – it’s still a sellers market
National headlines don’t always translate to the local real estate market, and that’s certainly the case for the Conejo Valley. While the market is definitely not as red hot as it was a year ago, the good homes still sell fast and with multiple offers. But instead of 10-12 offers, there may only be 3-5 offers – still a seller’s market.
It’s simply a matter of supply and demand. New home construction has greatly lagged population growth for the last 10+ years throughout the country. Locally, we stopped building about 20 years ago. And the Millennials (our largest generation) now represent the average home buyer.
In 2019, the Conejo Valley had 737 homes for sale going into May, this year…346. That’s less than half. Work-from-home flexibility has accelerated the flight from the city to the suburbs and has kept (and should keep) local demand high.
Bottom line…
It’s still a good time to buy. Long term forecasts expect home prices to continue up in spite of rising interest rates. Conejo Valley home prices continued to climb in April (+19%). A market with both rising interest rates (which are expected to continue to climb) and double digit price gains is likely unsustainable. We should begin to see appreciation drastically slow, but slowing down does not equal going down. The seller’s market continues on.
On a scale from 1-10, are we in a seller’s market?
What to expect moving forward
- May is historically the peak for new listings hitting the market. Expect a steady flow of new inventory throughout the month.
- Not every home sells in the first few days. Keep an eye out for homes that have been on the market for 10+ days. There may be some deals to be had.
- Multiple offers and bidding wars will continue to dominate the market. Be prepared to act quickly and creatively when a good house hits the market.
- Trying to predict where interest rates will be in any given month is an impossible task. Don’t pass up good homes hoping that rates will come down in the near future. With prices still increasing, a slight reduction in rates won’t make much of a difference anyway.
What's The 2022 California Forecast?
According to the California Association of REALTORS
- The median price of a home is expected to increase 5.2% in 2022.
- The number of home sales is expected to decrease by 5.2%.
- Interest rates are expected to hit 5.3% by the fourth quarter, resulting in a 2022 mortgage rate average of 4.9%. The average mortgage rate should jump to 5.4% by 2023 (updated 5/5/2022).
Market Snapshot
Price
- The median price of a Conejo Valley home was up in April at $1,250,000.
- That’s now 22 consecutive months up.
- Prices are up 18% from $1,060,000 last April.
- And up $177,500 from last month.
Homes for Sale
- April ended with 351 homes for sale.
- Down 31% from last April.
- That’s 160 fewer homes than last year.
- And 65 more homes than last month.
Days to Sell a Home
- It took 23 days on average to sell a home in April.
- Down 44% from last April.
- That’s 18 fewer days than last year.
- And 1 more day than last month.
